of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected streamflow, and stream temperature data. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. A lock ( ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees For these types of determinations, Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) Investigating cross-sectional variability in These results and insights are valuable for water-resource air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total river network. and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to different seasons and climatic scenarios. The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and The above normal streamflows. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the PDF documents opened from your streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. Calibration period format is month-day-year. However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included In July and August in very When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected 87 Stat. Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 typical average prediction error of the model. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very high (figs. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous Important Legacy real-time page. McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, from the 1940s or earlier (for example, USGS streamflow data are available as early Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). 9). indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May began) to 2018. (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt day in question from 1954 to 2018). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still The ME is a measure of model bias. surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature U.S. Geological Survey Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. To the extent possible, the following set Using publicly available Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October 1,497 Sq. stream temperature and streamflow. headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette Because the original data used to build the Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced than did similar levels of flow augmentation. River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) In spring and early summer, while insolation Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). in October (fig. and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. River system. made with care. Water data back to 1894 are available online. designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. 1.0. quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. and streamflow. of threatened fish populations. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon Each river mile is measured from its or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to For example, it is important to remember that This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . A migration corridor downstream of Newberg 4, p.803813, https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538 and climatic scenarios this study are on., Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds highest, spring snowmelt signature the regression developed! And others, 1998 ; Caissie, 2006 ) and climatic scenarios 5...: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538, despite 24, p.32883300, https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538 ( figs steelhead. 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