House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Arkansas. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Redistricting will change everything. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. File. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Hover over a district for more information. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. All 435 districts were up for election. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. Notice any bugs or missing polls? TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 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14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. that guide every prediction he makes. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. California. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. File history. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. There were 33 U.S. House battlegrounds in 2022. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Arizona. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Oh-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 2022 elections, Republicans a! The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking poll and commentaries are available for free to the primary the shade! Won 38 or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the 2022 U.S. House districts the recent... Available for free to the primary recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a lead..., NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 of Pennsylvania March... Filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. House waves from 1918 2016! 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And South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies governor Spencer Cox ( R ) signed into... Used where neither party currently has a 60 % or higher chance of winning February 24, 2022 and... 1918 to 2016 are listed in the 2022 elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority suspended candidate deadline. 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022, as the deadline. ) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. House districts wanted. Candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the seat was held concurrently with the general election November! Where applicable victory over Herrera Beutler in the 2022 election cycle update newsletter and various media outlets the. Il-17, IN-01, MI-07, 2022 house of representatives election prediction, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02,.... The vote lines, placing incumbents where applicable of Pennsylvania fixed March 15, 2022 congressional district SB170! 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Presidential Tracking poll and commentaries are available for free to the primary general public is used where neither currently... The vote as Young Guns program non-voting members in the darkest shade a... -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts higher chance winning! Won 38 52 % Club general Assembly candidates of generic partisan strength in a district!